Looking Back on the 20th Century,

and Forward to The Year 2000

Since I was born in 1919, and my awareness of memory and consciousness of the world commenced about 1925, my firsthand experience with the 20th century spans about 65 years. I was raised by people well acquainted with, and shaped by the first quarter of this century, and in a rural setting far from the mainstream (Vermont, USA). The values of the 1900-1925 period that were inculcated during my maturation gave me more than a little acquaintance with that period. My 65 year love affair with reading books, particularly those dealing with social anthropology and history, have left me with some basis of comparison of "our century" with prior centuries. As a scientist trained by research experience in the semi empirical field of organic chemistry, I have learned to differentiate between what is known, what is partially known, what is ambiguous, and what is unknown. My final qualification for commenting on the 20th century is an optimistic approach to anticipating certain things that will happen in the last decade of this century. If I have a faith, it is that many experiments will turn out well, and that the human species has choice and, by and large, the will and inclination to exercise that choice roughly in the direction of serving the collective interests.

The 20th century above all has been the "century of science." Scientists have discovered and expanded the knowledge that has allowed engineers, inventors, doctors, and business people to put chemical and physical tools in our collective hands that have revolutionized the lives of about half the people in the world. Many in the other half aspire to get these tools in hand. These tools removed much of the harshness from the human experience, preserved our offspring, extended our lives, provided time for education, and gave us more control over our environment than ever before. In previous centuries, death paid many visits to the average family, particularly with respect to infants. Now tools are available to provide life expectancies at birth of as much as seventy years. The green revolution allowed this planet to feed a rapidly expanding population. Acceptable birth control methods are now available to control that expansion. Many diseases have been completely eradicated, and many more can be controlled. We have instantaneous audible and visual communication, and fast transportation. We have computers that leverage our intellectual output, that help us model and monitor physical phenomena, and that calculate the formerly incalculable. The genetic codes have been broken and the genes, themselves, are being located and repaired. "No win weapons" have kept us out of world wars for nearly half a century. Atom splitting can provide unlimited amounts of energy. Before the finish of this century, I predict AIDS will be curable, the immune system will be well-understood and subject to stimulation, and faulty genes will be repairable. New ways of storing and recovering energy will be available for fueling transportation in lightweight vehicles. Some forms of cancer will be curable. New ways of purifying water will be available. Much more biology will be reduced to chemistry and physics, and thereby subject to rational control and correction.
Advances in science made these things possible, practical people reduced the attendant knowledge to use, and entrepreneurs brought the products to receptive public marketplaces. Although each link in the chain is necessary, a faith that such things as those listed above are possible and desirable had to precede their realization. The 20th century could well be thought of by future historians as the age when science went to work for the general welfare. The Nobel Awards did much to stimulate and celebrate these changes for the better.