The Dream of Roses
An Outlook of California Football in Season 2004-05
March 3, 2004
Li Tai Fang
The Golden Bears concluded the previous season in a high note, beating the highly regarded Virginia Tech team in the Insight Bowl in front of a nationally televised audience. The result was a surprise to many football experts and fans, who expected a team who just graduated the star quarterback to the 1st round of NFL draft, and have 10 new starters on defense, to be a rebuilding project. Yet, it became a season filled with highlights. Insight Bowl victory notwithstanding, the greatest game of the season came when Cal took down the eventual national champion USC in triple overtime at the Memorial Stadium.
In the off-season, Athletic Director Steve Gladstone announced a plan of a $140 million retrofit project to renovate the California Memorial Stadium and football facilities. In response, Jeff Tedford had turned down coaching offers from perennial national power Nebraska Cornhuskers, as well as proud NFL franchise Chicago Bears, to remain with California Golden Bears. The future is simply bright. Junior-to-be Aaron Rodgers will be a potential Heismen Trophy candidate in his 2nd year at Cal, also returning is nation's 2nd leading receiver, senior-to-be Geoff McArthur. The wide receiver position will also return this year's second best receiver Jonathan Makonnen, as well as the addition of a speedy group who have redshirted in this past season. It will be a pleasure to watch Rodgers connecting with these receivers in the coming season.The tailback position will return J. J. Arrington, who led the Pac-10 in yard-per-carry this past season, Terrell Williams who was named starter before the 2001-2002 season but was injured for much of the past 2 seasons, as well as redshirt sophomore Marcus O'Keith. Starting fullback Chris Manderino will also be back. The already potent offense will likely to be even more unstoppable next season. It will strike fear in all opposing defense before the game starts. The defense, although not as successful this past season, will have almost the entire unit back, so it will likely to improve based on experience and team chemistry.
California Golden Bears, who had her inaugural season in 1882, with 117 years of history in college football, has had very limited glory. Golden Bears coaching legend Andy Smith had 5 straight undefeated season from 1920 to 1924, and then tragedy struck. On January 9th, 1926, Andy Smith died of pneumonia, at the young age of 27! From that day on, California football died with him. To this day, Cal football seasons are mostly filled with mediocrity and failures. Cal has not won the Rose Bowl since 1939, has not gone to the Rose Bowl since 1959, and has not even shared a conference title since 1975 when late Joe Roth was the quarterback. It is hard to believe, despite her early proud histories, Cal has not had three consecutive winning season in over half of a century that dates back to early 1950s, when Pappy Waldorf was at the helm.
On the other hand, the past failures give Jeff Tedford a rare opportunity in making himself a coaching legend at Berkeley. No college program can be successful without sustained success in the game of recruiting. The recruiting Class of 2004 brought in by Jeff Tedford is once again well regarded as is his last recruiting class. Generally speaking, the Class of 2004 is low in quantity in terms of number of scholarships awarded, but very high in quality in terms of player ratings. Of course, one will never know how good each recruit is until he is seen on the field in action, however, Jeff Tedford has proven to be a good judge in football talent. Capping this class is No. 2 rated running back in Marshawn Lynch, No.4 rated defensive end in Phillip Mbakogu, No. 6 rated linebacker in Worrell Williams, and No. 8 rated quarterback in Nathan Longshore, per Rivals.com.
Cal's season opener next year will be against Air Force Academy in Colorado Spring, followed by home opener against New Mexico State. A Rose Bowl berth for the first time since 1959 is a real possibility. As a heavy favorite, Cal shall ill afford to look past Air Force. Air Force, for whatever reason, has been Cal's nemesis recently. Two years ago during Jeff Tedford's inaugural season, Cal started with a 3-0 record after beating 15th ranked Michigan State on the road and entered Top 25 ranking, but Cal receivers somehow dropped 9 passes against Air Force and lost that game. Cal has won 10 straight national championships in Rugby, until an huge upset at the hands of Air Force last year. This basketball season, Air Force held Cal to 48 points in defeating the Bears at home, a rarity since the opening of Hass Pavilion. Lacking superior talent, but relying on discipline on offense, Air Force utilizes triple option offense. Cal, because of the lack of speed on defense in rent memory as well as the lack of experience last year, has had lots of problem defending options. However, the Bears defense has gained significant speed due to the recruiting effort of Tedford, and experience from past season, Cal should be able to contain Air Force's options. This string of bad luck against Air Force Academy must end in the next football season.
After home opener against cream puff in New Mexico State, Cal will go on the road against the defending Conference USA Champion in Southern Mississippi in Hattiesburg. It is a team that Cal has easily handled last season with a score of 34-2, and will lose their all-American linebacker in Rod Davis. Even with improved offense for Southern Mississippi, Cal should overwhelm the Golden Eagles with superior talent and explosive aerial attack. The key to the game is for youngsters in early seasons to keep composure in a potentially hostile environment on the road, but it could be a valuable learning experience. For the Golden Bears to do great things, the team has to be poised under all playing conditions.
After the road trip to Hattiesburg, Cal will enter the toughest 2-game span on of the schedule: Pac-10 opener against Oregon State in Corvallis and the subsequent showdown against USC in Los Angeles. Despite marked improvement since Jeff Tedford took over the program, Oregon State is the one team that has dominated Cal, handing Cal the worst margin of defeat in each of the past two seasons. However, with the departure of star running back Stephen Jackson, Oregon State may have to rely on inconsistent and often erratic quarterback Derek Anderson. As long as the defensive front is able to apply pressure on Anderson, the secondary will pick off some passes. Oregon State's defensive backs manhandled Cal receivers last season, but they too will be gone mostly due to graduations.
If Cal is able to win the first four games of next season, the showdown against USC in Los Angeles will be a clash of the titans, a game to be remembered for ages, and a game that has national championship and Rose Bowl implications. The game will feature two of nation's top quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers of Cal and Matt Leinart of USC, and also two of nation's top football coaches in Jeff Tedford of Cal and Pete Carroll of USC. Many figure that Cal is the only obstacle to USC's potential perfect season in 2004. Cal does indeed stand a solid chance of defeating USC once again next season, having beaten USC five of the past the eight meetings between them. However, one has to admit that USC is an overall more talented and more experienced team, who has played in the big games and seen the big stages. The showdown between USC and Cal next season might be the only game in which Cal's opponent is the designated favorite. In this case, as the defending national champion, USC is deservedly the favorite. However, the Golden Bears will give the Trojans all, and hopefully more, than they can handle.
If Cal survives up to this part of the season, the Bears will get somewhat of a breather in the next three weeks, with games against three of the league's weakest teams: UCLA, Arizona, and then Arizona State. If all goes well, these three games could be three blowouts. One might see plenty of actions by backups during that span, hence resting starters and/or injured players, before the crucial match up against Oregon.
Cal suffered a very disappointing defeat in Eugene, Oregon last season, blowing a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter. Jeff Tedford was accused of being overly conservative and cautious in his offensive game plan against his former employer, although he was not without his reasons. A sizeable lead in the 4th quarter in the rain usually calls for a more conservative approach. In any case, an all-out revenge will be in order against the Ducks, before meeting two more league's doormats: Washington and Stanford.
For much of the modern history in Cal football, Washington and Stanford are the two teams that have consistently dominated the Bears. Up to 2001, Washington held a 19-game wining streak in a span of 26 years against Cal, and arch rival Stanford held a 7-game winning streak against Cal. Both fortunes have changed upon the arrival of Jeff Tedford. After an emotional victory in Seattle against Washington in 2002, Cal laughed all the way for 729 yards on offense against Washington in 2003, en route to a 54-7 mauling of the Huskies. Cal blew out Stanford in 2001 with a score of 30-7. Last year, despite a sloppy start that saw Cal trail by 10-0 in the first half, Cal stormed all the way back to take a 28-10 lead, until Stanford scored a touchdown as the time expired to make it a more respectable 28-16 score. Next season looks to be no different against these two former nemeses. Washington and Stanford, coached by Keith Gilbertson and Buddy Teeven, respectively, are going in a different direction as Cal. These two programs are getting worse and worse under two incompetent coaching regimes. They will pay for their bad coaching decision by getting blasted by Tedford's team until then.
Another factor that increases Cal's chance of making the Rose Bowl next season is the possible dominance of USC. Even if Cal does not beat USC to become the outright Pac-10 champion in the upcoming season and thus the guaranteed Rose Bowl berth, USC may be ranked BCS No. 1 or 2 at end of the season and hence go to the Orange Bowl in 2005 for the BCS Title, which leaves the 2nd place finisher in the Pac-10, potentially Cal, a possible Rose Bowl bid. I promise, if Cal makes it to Pasadena (the site of the Rose Bowl) on New Year Day (the day of the Rose Bowl), I will be there in person, rooting for the Golden Bears in defeating the Big-10 champion.
Go Bears, all the way to the Rose Bowl!!!
P.S. To read up the recent history of California Football, click here.
